Turkmenistan: Chinese deal helps stall Trans-Caspian pipeline, deter Caspian conflict

As Turkmenistan continues to pursue its own pipeline projects -- primarily with Beijing, but also promoting the Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline and indicating some support for the Trans-Caspian Pipeline -- Russia has become increasingly belligerent. Maybe this is just to gain a bargaining position, as there are indications that Turkmenistan's new gas deal with China will help delay the Trans-Caspian Pipeline between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, designed to circumvent Russia.More ...

A U.S. Delegation in Turkmenistan

It's rare that Turkmenistan's heavily state-controlled media has any news not covered by any other outlets. Yet on January 24, the State News Agency of Turkmenistan (TDH) carried a brief notice of a "high-level delegation consisting of high-ranking officials of the U.S. Department of State and Ministry [sic] of Defense," published under the "Cooperation" rubric of the propagandistic government website called "Turkmenistan: The Golden Age".More ...

European Parliament moves bloc a step closer to Turkmenistan

The European Parliament has given its initial green light to a partnership agreement with gas-rich Turkmenistan, aimed at bringing the Central Asian country closer to the European Union.

But the draft agreement has been criticized for risking legitimatizing a repressive regime.

The European Union and Turkmenistan signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) back in 1998, although its entry into force has long been postponed due to the uncertain political situation in the country and human rights concerns.More ...

Statement Energy Security and Democratic Development: the case of Turkmenistan

ETG was invited to speak about energy, security and democratic development at a conference, organised by the German Government and FRIDE.

Please find Michael’s speech below:

Ladies and Gentlemen:

At first, I would also like to thank the organizers of today‘s conference here in Bonn for discussing those important questions, dedicated to the relations between the European Union and Central Asia.

When reflecting about the topic of this event, one might think that energy security would be the relevant part the European Union and its member states is interested in, while democratic development is mainly relevant for the future of the Central Asian states, in this case Turkmenistan. But in fact, democratic development is not only important and essential for Turkmenistan itself, it has an impact to stability and security within the whole Eurasian region, with direct consequences for the EU, for the OSCE, for NATO and other institutions.

The relations between the European Union and Turkmenistan are mainly based on establishing an energy dialogue. It can be described as a pragmatic approach, because it differs from the basic principles of the EU Central Asia Strategy, defined under the German Presidency in 2006, whereby the promotion of democracy and the rule of law form the basis for more intense bilateral relations.

However, a number of steps taken by Brussels over the past years seem to indicate that in the case of Turkmenistan, the Union is placing bilateral relations ahead of its ratified commitment to values. More ...

ETG Turkmenistan/Nabucco Roundtable

On March 5, 2010, Eurasian Transition Group hosted a roundtable discussion on the political and economical situation in Turkmenistan, its geopolitical implications and the prospects of the Nabucco project.

Please find some relevant documents and audio files below:
More ...

Sucking up to Dictators Is Harder Than It Looks

September 21, 2009, was a day of blitz diplomacy for U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: She had more than eight and a half hours of bilateral meetings to juggle, along with a marathon of press briefings and camera sprays at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel in New York. But one of her sit-downs that day required particular finesse. It was with an obscure dictator whose name alone presented a challenge -- Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, the president of Turkmenistan. He came into the room with an immediate advantage: The United States needed his help. Clinton needed to convince him to let NATO transports through his country, a move that would ease pressure on U.S. supply lines into Afghanistan and probably save some U.S. troops. The usual approach -- money -- would not work with energy-rich Turkmenistan. It was a test of her skill as a diplomat.

turkmenistanresizedMore ...

Invitation: ETG Central Asia Discussions 2010

Invitation:
ETG will host a roundtable discussion March 5, 2010 in Vienna.
„Turkmenistan - Western Influence: Energy Interests and Political Implications“

Topics will be:
Turkmen Gas and Nabucco
The political situation in Turkmenistan
Geopolitics
Possible strategies of EU, OSCE and US

Key Speakers will be:
Alain Délétroz, Vice President Europe, International Crisis Group (ICG)
Arkady Dubnov, Journalist and Turkmenistan Expert
Nurmukhamed Hanamov, former Ambassador of Turkmenistan and Expert on the political and social situation

If you are interested to participate, please send us a short mail.

US trying new track on Nabucco project

The United States wants to "depoliticize" the proposed Nabucco pipeline project, and might welcome Russia’s participation in the pipeline, Washington’s Eurasian energy envoy, Richard Morningstar, recently announced. The Kremlin, however, is likely to interpret this outwardly magnanimous gesture as a sign of Nabucco’s weakness, some experts say.More ...

Russia and Turkmenistan mend their relationship

At the end of December, leaders of Russia and Turkmenistan met to discuss the future of their relationship.

First, on December 22, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov met in Ashgabat and signed an agreement to expand bilateral “strategic” energy cooperation. Then the heads of Gazprom and Turkmengaz signed an agreement on the resumption of Turkmen gas supplies to Russia with the start of 2010, amounting to 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually.
More ...

Gas flows again to Russia

Natural gas may be flowing again from Turkmenistan to Russia, but the two countries’ pricing dispute is not over, analysts are predicting.
Turkmen gas exports to Russia resumed January 9 after a nearly nine-month hiatus, due to a pricing dispute. Under the Turkmen-Russian settlement, the Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom will only buy 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually compared to 50 bcm in previous years, and will pay in the region of $250 per thousand cubic meters (tcm), Russian news sources reported.
More ...

Where is Turkmenistan’s Gas Money Going?

The Turkmen government has announced that it no longer depends solely on natural gas as a revenue source. NBCentralAsia analysts say this is unlikely to be true, and the real question is how much of the gas money makes it into the official coffers, since management of the revenues from Turkmenistan’s mineral wealth is far from transparent. More ...

EU ignores Turkmen rights abuse, seeks gas

An international human rights watchdog on Tuesday accused the European Union of ignoring rights abuses in energy-rich Turkmenistan in the hopes of securing future natural gas supplies.More ...

All That Gas?: The EU and Turkmenistan

The European Commission is turning a blind eye to corruption, lack of transparency and poor human rights in the repressive police state of Turkmenistan in a bid to secure future gas supplies, according to a new illustrated briefing paper from the campaign group Global Witness, launched on the eve of the 2009 oil and gas conference in Ashgabat, the Turkmen capital.

The report, ‘All that Gas?’ represents an innovative collaboration between Global Witness and cutting-edge satirical cartoonist, David Rees, who has produced original artwork for the publication. His seven new cartoons feature EU bureaucrats discussing crude strategies to ‘get the gas’. Rees is best-known for his US cartoon series ‘Get Your War On’, published on the internet and in Rolling Stone magazine.


Downloads:

icon_pdf All That Gas? (11/2009) Hi-res PDF
icon_pdf All That Gas? (11/2009) Lo-res version
icon_img Comic Strips (in Turkmen)
icon_img Comic Strips (Na russkom)
icon_img David Rees' Comic Strips (In English, hi-res)
icon_doc Gazovyi vopros (11/2009), Word, na russkom
icon_doc Hemme zat gaz üçinmi? (11/2009) Word, Türkmen
icon_pdf Press-Release (11/2009)

Source: Global Witness

Press Release by GCA on Turkmen Gas Fields

In a public Statement, GCA told the following:

In October 2008, Gaffney Cline & Associates announced the results of its audit of the gas resources of the South Yolotan/Osman and Yashlar fields in Turkmenistan. Following that announcement, the following pulic statement was released.
More ...

Turkmenistan falsified data on gas reserves in the country

Vienna, 13.10.09-ETG On Sunday evening, during an emergency meeting of the Turkmen Government, it became evident what sources like „Eurasian Transition Group“ already reported back in 2008 and earlier this year and which could have an important impact on the energy policy of the Caspian region and the future construction plans of pipelines like the Nabucco project.
More ...

Turkmen Cabinet: Gas Audit results a fake

During a cabinet meeting of the Turkmen Government on October 11, 2009, it became evident what ETG already published eight months ago: all test audits in the gas industry of Turkmenistan, though conducted by independent experts, were faked.

ETG sources report that during the cabinet meeting President Berdymukhamedov announced the falsification of the independent gas drillings, saying that probably only one third of the results might be realistic.

By a decree most of the responsible directors in the gas industry were fired.

ETG will follow the situation in the country carefully.

More empty gas talks with Russia?

Turkmenistan has proven a fickle energy-export partner for all foreign companies trying to do business there. Yet, a Kremlin spokesperson’s recent statement that Russia would resume natural gas imports as soon as the end of October, confirms that hope springs eternal when it comes to the question of Ashgabat and energy.More ...

France, Kazakhstan seal long-term energy accords

Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, eyeing broader geopolitical engagement between Europe and Central Asia, have announced the signing of a number of agreements between their two countries involving oil and gas. More ...

Nabucco Pipeline: Results of a survey (in Russian)

Объединенная евразийская экспертная сеть (JEEN) представляет результаты экспертного опроса по проблеме реализации проекта Nabucco.More ...

Turkmen President's Interview: "We are Criminals" he said.

(AP) — ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan - Energy-rich Turkmenistan has signed a deal with independent Russian gas producer Itera to jointly develop an offshore field in the Caspian Sea, Turkmen state media reported Monday.

In a signing ceremony overseen by the presidents of Russia and Turkmenistan on Sunday, the sides agreed to begin work next year on developing the field, which is estimated to hold 160 million tons of recoverable oil and 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
More ...

Uzbekistan cuts natural gas supply to the south of Kyrgyzstan due to debts

In the night of September 24 of 2009 Uzbekistan shut natural gas supply to the southern region of Kyrgyzstan, 24.kg information agency reports. This happened due to the debt of the consumers in the city of Osh.More ...

Perspectives of the Nabucco Pipeline: Interview (In Russian)

Редакция сайта Объединенной евразийской экспертной сети ( JEEN ) провела экспертный опрос по проблеме перспектив реализации проекта Nabucco. В опросе приняли участие эксперты из России и стран СНГ. На основе опроса сформирован аналитический обзор, который будет опубликован в ближайшее время на сайте Сети JEEN ( j - een . com ). Предваряя презентацию отчета, редакция сайта публикует эксклюзивное интервью с Виталием Куликом, директором Центра исследований проблем гражданского общества (Украина) по указанной проблеме.More ...

Is Turkmenistan a reliable partner for the EU? New ETG Analysis

Relations between the European Union (EU) and Turkmenistan are focused on establishing an energy dialogue. Prior to the death of President Niyazov, Turkmenistan was the most isolated country in Central Asia. Ties between Brussels and Ashgabat were poor at best. The emergence of Berdymukhamedov as Niyazov’s successor and his subsequent election to the presidency gave the EU a chance to move bilateral relations with Turkmenistan to a qualitatively new level. The initial rhetoric of the new president was promising. He appeared to identify some changes in foreign and economic policy, namely, a strengthening of the country’s orientation towards the West. This encouraged Brussels to hope for new opportunities with Turkmenistan.More ...

Courting Turkmenistan

Each December, Turkmenistan celebrates "Neutrality Day," an official state holiday commemorating the reclusive country's aspiration to be the Switzerland of Central Asia. But for the first time in nearly a century, Turkmenistan is finally in play. Although the former Soviet republic has languished for decades, EU-Russian energy tensions, the war in Afghanistan, and the power politics of oil and gas have combined to fuel a new "Great Game" in Central Asia. The most coveted prize may be the hermit kingdom of Turkmenistan, which sits atop the world's fourth-largest reserves of natural gas, a huge amount of oil, and a strategic position in the heart of Central Asia. The United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey are all vying for influence in Turkmenistan. The only question is, at whose expense will future gains be made?More ...

Central Asian gas: An opportunity Europe seems determined to miss

If ever there was a time for the European Union to cut the Gordian knot of energy dependence on Russia -- or, more precisely, cut out the Russian middleman currently controlling supply routes from the Caspian Sea region -- it is now.More ...

Russia to clinch deals to hasten Europe gas link

Russia aims to speed up the new South Stream gas link to Europe by signing deals with transit states, and has rebuked the United States and former Soviet satellite states for backing a rival project.More ...

Turkmenistan needs Europe too for gas sales

Turkmenistan has told the West it sought to find new ways of diversifying its gas exports, in a snub to Russia, which wants to keep the energy-rich former Soviet republic on a tight leash.More ...

EU agrees deal on energy

The European Union has agreed on joint goals with supplier and transit states at talks in Prague aimed at establishing long-term energy and transport links with the Middle East and Central Asia.More ...

Ashkhabad wonders whether Russia still has deep pockets

It is clear that nothing happened during Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s just-concluded visit to Moscow that could shake up a stalling relationship. Experts are still wondering, however, about what exactly occurred during Berdymukhamedov’s talks with top Russian officials, including President Dmitry Medvedev.More ...

Turkmenistan and Russia will make new gas agreements

Negotiations between presidents of Russia and Turkmenistan Dmitry Medvedev and Gurbankuly Berdymuhammedov took place in Moscow on March 25.More ...

EU weighs image, energy in relations with Turkmenistan

With immense natural-gas fields located within reach, Turkmenistan is in a prime position to provide the gas needed to make the EU's Nabucco gas-pipeline project a reality.More ...

What was the Turkmen Gas deal in Tehran?

Turkmenistan's President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov visited Tehran on February 13-14 and, following a meeting with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, spoke about new energy deals between the neighboring countries. More ...

Nabucco agreements to be signed in spring

Nabucco Managing Director Reinhard Mitschek says the project's members will meet in Ankara this spring to sign agreements to implement the gas pipeline.More ...

European Parliament: Iran should participate in Nabucco pipeline

Iran could hold the key to breaking the European Union’s energy dependence on Russia, a senior European parliamentary official has told EurasiaNet.More ...

EU-Central Asia-Russia: The inept Gas triangle continues

It was just last week that I put in a blog piece that the EU’s chances of diversifying their gas supplies were extremely poor.

More ...

Results of the Nabucco Conference in Budapest

There was an air of optimism following a one-day Nabucco international natural-gas pipeline conference in Budapest.More ...

First 2009 edition of ETG Central Asia News Digest released

The first edition of ETG’s Central Asia News Digest 2009 is available. This time we focus on Turkmenistan, discussing the health system, the energy supply in Turkmenistan, the influence of the financial global crisis on the country, reasons for Berdymukhamedov’s decision to fire members of the cabinet and the negotiations with NATO on security and further cooperation.

Again, this report is available in Russian and can be ordered.

Karimov quells Russian gas fears, secures deal

Uzbekistan has pledged to support a new trans-Russian gas pipeline, easing Moscow's fears it would succumb to European pressure to bypass Russia with its energy supplies and reduce its influence in the region.More ...

EU to expand contacts

The European Union is to expand relations with Turkmenistan by opening a diplomatic mission in Ashgabat, a source in the Turkmen government has told Trend.az. According to the Azeri news agency, the aim is to "extend mutually beneficial cooperation" between energy rich Turkmenistan and Brussels.More ...

Medvedev visits as Uzbekistan looks West...again

Dmitry Medvedev is expected to stress bilateral cooperation as he makes his first state visit to Uzbekistan since becoming Russia's president in May. More ...

Russia on Nabucco

Russia will not oppose the construction of the Nabucco pipeline and is keen to see it become a success, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Tuesday.More ...

The EU’s got a gas problem

So it appears that Ukraine and Russia have finally come to terms on a Gas Transportation deal that will allow the former Soviet state to receive gas and send it on to Western Europe.  This is just the latest in a long line of dramas involving the transport and ownership of energy reserves between the triangle of Russia, Central Asia, and the EU.  For Russia must first acquire most of the gas it sells to Europe from its former Soviet states to its south, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

More ...

Interview with Nabucco official

The ongoing dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural-gas shipments to Europe has left the European Union cold -- and eager to re-examine its options for fuel supplies. One alternative is the Nabucco pipeline, which would ship Central Asian gas directly to Europe and circumvent Russia and other troublesome countries altogether. But the EU has yet to put its weight fully behind the Nabucco project, which is still years away from completion.More ...

Nabucco Pipeline's competitors (in German)

Der russisch-ukrainische Gasstreit hat die Diskussion über Alternativen für Europas Gasversorgung neu in Gang gebracht. Nicht nur die europäischen Abnehmerländer stehen vor der Frage, wie sie eine Diversifizierung ihrer Versorgung erreichen können. Auch Russland sucht neue Exportrouten, um von Transitländern wie der Ukraine unabhängiger zu werden. Die Strategen des Staatsmonopolisten Gazprom versuchen das auf zwei Wegen: Nord Stream, die geplante Ostsee-Pipeline, soll Erdgas vom russischen Wyborg durch die Ostsee direkt ins deutsche Lubmin bei Greifswald führen. Das Projekt, an dem auch die deutschen Unternehmen BASF/Wintershall und Eon sowie die niederländische Gasunie beteiligt sind, stößt jedoch auf Widerstände bei den baltischen und skandinavischen Anrainern, die mit den Genehmigungen zögern.More ...

Is Ashkhabad's interest in Nabucco rising?

The head of Germany’s second largest electricity and gas company, RWE AG, hailed Turkmenistan’s "promising" market and expressed a readiness for "constructive interaction in the energy sphere" during a visit to Ashgabat, news agencies report. This visit is raising speculation about Turkmen intentions to participate in the long-planned trans-Caspian and Nabucco pipeline projects.More ...

Ashkhabad turns off the switch to Tajikistan

Turkmenistan has suspended electricity exports to Tajikistan because Dushanbe has failed to sign a transit agreement with Uzbekistan that would see Tashkent levy a 10 percent transit fee on its impoverished neighbor.More ...

Central Asia's era of cheap gas comes to a close

Starting on January 1, Uzbekistan increased the gas price it charges neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for natural gas to $240 per 1,000 cubic meters, saying last year's price of $145 was far below real market prices.More ...

Ashkhabad reveals that gas won't start flowing to China in 2009

Turkmenistan has postponed start date for exporting natural gas to China. At the same time, Ashgabat reported that work on a 7,000-kilometer transnational pipeline was proceeding at "full speed."More ...

German and Austrian "Realpolitik" concerning Turkmenistan

The global economic slowdown appears to be giving Turkmenistan’s leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, a boost.
Turkmenistan’s own relative isolation has proven a benefit during these tough economic times, shielding Ashgabat from some of the worst effects of the worldwide credit crunch. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same time, the crisis has infused European governments, especially Germany, with a sense of urgency to conclude new deals that help embattled exporters. The fact that Berdymukhamedov’s administration seems to be one of the few governments in the world today with money to spend is prompting European states to de-emphasize Ashgabat’s troubled record on civil society development.
More ...